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JUST THE FAQs
"What kind of attack can we expect?"
by H. David Blalock
After the stunning events of 9/11 we, as a nation, are concerned with preventing further terrorist actions against America. Having little personal experience with this, we really don't know where to start. Initially, we have emulated the measures taken by Israel and Britain: increased airport security, more stringent immigration standards, and closer scrutiny of large financial transactions domestic and international. However, these measures are effective only if used in concert with a determined goal of confronting, enforcing, and prosecuting violations regardless of origin. Profiling is undesirable not because it may be discriminatory, but because it restricts surveillance by targeting certain groups and tacitly vindicating others. If we are to effectively counter further threats, we must realize that the following actions are most likely:
Hostage taking
A time-tested procedure, this holdover from antiquity remains ingrained in the Arab mind unfamiliar with the West. The taking, exchanging, or execution of hostages has always been symbolic of the basic difference between occidental and oriental views of human life in general.
In the Eastern view, the hostage&Mac226;s fate is representative of the conflict&Mac226;s desired resolution. Release signifies end of hostilities (e.g., the Iran/Carter/Reagan situation), exchange means a willingness to negotiate (e.g., exchange of intelligence operatives), and execution equates to intractability and recognition of insoluble conflict (e.g., Daniel Pearl).
The taking of hostages is now and will continue to be the most common and most psychologically devastating way of prosecuting the War on Terror from the Eastern side. Human life in the Easterner&Mac226;s eyes is cheap and disposable. In societies where survival often entails infanticide, the sanctity of human life can never be more than an abstract concept.
Suicide bombings
We must recognize that Israel and Palestine are at war. Although the West seldom considers irregular skirmishes and infrequent attacks worthy of the name "war", that is exactly how wars are prosecuted in the East. Limited by geography and international pressure, both parties must resort to limited engagements, including suicide bombings, to further their effort.
The side effect of this is that every citizen of both countries becomes a legitimate target of opportunity. Impossible to predict, difficult to prevent, and psychologically tactical, suicide bombings give maximum impact for minimum friendly casualty. As long as smaller organizations such as Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and even the PLO are allowed to exist, this kind of attack will be the method of choice.
More frequent attacks in Africa and Latin America
Internal economic and political turmoil detracts from international security concerns in nations like Zimbabwe, Somalia, Congo, Angola, Argentina, and Brazil. This makes European and American interests in these countries prime targets for terrorist attack. Any attempt to fortify foreign interests in these countries would only further alienate them from the native population; a "Catch-22" situation.
We must remain vigilant
The most difficult attacks we might expect will grow out of the inevitable apathy that is already encroaching on America over the War on Terror. Americans are notoriously fickle in their loyalties. Novelty attracts passion in America, but familiarity truly breeds contempt. In a conflict so nebulous as the War on Terror, where there is no specific enemy, no way of defining terms of victory, and no end in sight, the American people will either have to mature emotionally and recognize the truth of the threat they face, or drown in their own self-absorption.
Next:
JUST THE FAQs: "What is the ultimate goal?"
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